Oct 26, 2020

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Monday: New Home Sales

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 25, 2020Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 1,025 thousand SAAR, up from 1,011 thousand in August.• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 18 and DOW futures are down 135 (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $39.23 per barrel and Brent at $41.20 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $57, and Brent was at $62 […]Read full article >
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October 24 COVID-19 Test Results; New US Record 7-Day Average Cases

The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 964,672 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 65,413 positive tests.Over 18,000 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The […]Read full article >
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30.7% Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 17 OctoberU.S. hotel occupancy was virtually flat from the previous week at 50.1%, according to the latest data from STR through 17 October.11-17 October 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):• Occupancy: 50.1% (-30.7%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$97.69 (-28.3%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.91 (-50.3%)emphasis addedThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.Click on graph for larger image.The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the […]Read full article >
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October 24 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,044,804 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 82,668 positive tests.Over 17,700 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The […]Read full article >
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Schedule for Week of October 25, 2020

The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and September New Home sales.Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for September and Case-Shiller house prices for August.For manufacturing, the Dallas and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.—– Monday, October 26th —–8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.The consensus is for 1,025 thousand SAAR, […]Read full article >
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October 23 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,123,341 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 83,010 positive tests (new record).Over 16,800 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking […]Read full article >