Yemen's decade-old conflict has entered a dangerous new phase. The Houthi movement, which controls Sanaa and most of northwestern Yemen, has shattered a fragile 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire by launching a major offensive that seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha on September 10, giving the group complete control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait — one of the world's busiest maritime chokepoints. The escalation follows months of deteriorating conditions: government forces attacked Sanaa's airport in July, the Houthis declared the truce violated, and a full offensive began in late August. The military picture is grim for the internationally recognised government. The Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), an eight-member body established in 2022 to replace the exiled President Hadi, now controls the south and east but has lost the entire Red Sea coastline. Fierce fighting continues in Marib, Taiz, Lahj, al-Jawf, and al-Bayda, with the Yemeni army reporting 13 soldiers killed in just two days of clashes in the southwestern provinces. The PLC had consolidated its position earlier this year after the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council dissolved, removing one internal fracture — but the Houthi offensive has overwhelmed whatever unity that provided. Saudi Arabia is under direct pressure. The Saudi-led coalition intercepted a missile targeting Riyadh — the first strike on the capital since the conflict reignited in July — and thwarted additional attacks on the Red Sea port of Yanbu, a critical oil export hub. Between 2017 and 2022, Saudi Arabia intercepted more than 4,000 Houthi missiles, drones, and standoff weapons. The Houthis confirmed targeting "sensitive sites" in Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu, and have banned Saudi ships from the Red Sea entirely. Riyadh accused the Houthis of targeting Mecca, which the group denied as a "worn-out lie." The regional geometry has shifted. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made the Red Sea — now entirely under Houthi coastal control — even more strategically critical. Saudi Arabia had been using Red Sea routes as an alternative to Hormuz; the Houthis have now choked both options. Meanwhile, Houthi representatives met US officials in Oman over the weekend, reportedly assuring Washington that non-Saudi-linked vessels would not be targeted. The US, still engaged in a costly war with Iran, has so far refused Saudi appeals for direct strikes on the Houthis. The humanitarian catastrophe has compounded. More than 112,000 people have been displaced in the latest fighting, with close to 3,000 fleeing to Djibouti. The International Organization for Migration estimates 22 million Yemenis — nearly half the population — need urgent humanitarian aid. This is layered atop years of devastation: in 2019, the UN declared Yemen the world's worst humanitarian crisis with 24 million people (80 percent of the population) needing assistance, alongside the world's worst cholera outbreak. The Houthis have evolved from a regional Zaidi Shia insurgency in the mountains of Saada into a force with genuine geopolitical leverage. Their prominence grew through attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping after October 2023, and they are now part of Iran's "axis of resistance" — though they maintain their own base, interests, and ambitions. The group's message, delivered through escalation, is unambiguous: Saudi bombardment will be met with commensurate strikes on Saudi infrastructure. The key players are locked in overlapping stalemates. Saudi Arabia wants the Houthis contained but cannot achieve it alone and has been denied American military support. The PLC seeks national reunification but lacks the military capacity to retake the northwest. The Houthis hold the strongest cards they have ever held — territorial control, chokepoint leverage, and a patron in Iran whose own war with the US creates a shield against direct intervention. The UN roadmap agreed in 2023 was never formalised. No diplomatic framework currently exists to stop the fighting.
