Min Aung Hlaing, the general who seized power in Myanmar in 2021 and triggered a civil war that has killed an estimated 100,000 people and displaced 3.5 million, is being welcomed back into international respectability — not because anything has changed inside Myanmar, but because his neighbours are tired of the spillover. The mechanism is simple: each ASEAN nation that hosts him lowers the cost for the next. Malaysia, the fifth ASEAN state to receive him since April, insisted the visit was about refugees and migrants — there are 193,000 Myanmar nationals in the country, mostly persecuted Rohingya. Min Aung Hlaing promised to repatriate them at Myanmar's expense, even pledging navy ships. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, facing domestic anti-refugee sentiment, pledged in return to help reintegrate Myanmar into ASEAN — the very bloc that had barred Min Aung Hlaing from high-level meetings for refusing to implement its Five Point Consensus peace plan. The diplomatic rehabilitation extends well beyond Southeast Asia. Since becoming president after elections that barred major opposition parties, Min Aung Hlaing has visited Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, India, China, Russia and Belarus. Indonesia and Brunei may follow. Washington has quietly opened direct talks, focused on shutting down scam centres that have defrauded Americans of billions. At every stop, the former general pitches stability and trade while the war grinds on behind him. The tour is underwritten by a coordinated push from China, India and Thailand — Myanmar's three border neighbours — all of whom want the military government recognised to manage their own spillover problems: cross-border fighting, disrupted trade, refugee flows. Russia and Belarus, major arms suppliers, have their own reasons. As Khin Zaw Win of the Tampadipa Institute put it: "Convenience plays a part for all of them." Nothing about this legitimacy campaign has altered conditions on the ground. The military has launched offensives in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin and Karen states and the Sagaing region, aided by intensified airstrikes and a recruitment drive adding tens of thousands to its ranks. A September 28 strike on a market in Rakhine killed an estimated 50 people — while ASEAN leaders were rolling out red carpets. Former Dutch diplomat Laetitia van den Assum noted the military is unlikely to regain full territorial control, instead pursuing temporary ceasefires to redeploy forces to contested areas. The Rohingya repatriation offer is particularly hollow. Myanmar has long denied the Rohingya citizenship, and much of Rakhine State — their homeland — is now held by the ethnic Arakan Army. Where exactly would returnees go? Van den Assum called it "the blind speaking to the blind." The ICRC visit to detained civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi in August, the first photographs of her in years, was assessed by University of Sydney researcher Sai Kyi Zin Soe as a "low-cost, high-optics gesture" that confirmed only that she is alive. The structural picture is clear: absent meaningful sanctions enforcement, with continued arms and fuel flowing via China and Russia, and ASEAN pivoting toward re-engagement, the military has every incentive to keep escalating. The Philippines and Singapore — ASEAN's current and incoming chairs — are the remaining potential checks. Human rights advocates are urging the US, UK, Canada, Australia and the EU to adopt targeted sanctions such as an aviation fuel ban, rather than outsourcing the problem to a regional bloc that has effectively abandoned its own peace plan.
