Yemen's internationally recognised government is running a multi-front offensive called Dawn of Yemen aimed at recapturing territory held by the Houthi group, including the capital Sanaa, seized in 2014. The operation relies on Saudi air support, decentralised supply chains, and a recently formed Supreme Military Committee meant to unify anti-Houthi forces under one command. The problem is that the unity is nominal and the supply lines are fracturing. The Houthis have scored significant tactical wins. A rapid advance along the Red Sea coast in early September captured Mocha, a critical port and supply hub for government forces in western Taiz governorate. A counter-offensive recovered some coastal territory but not Mocha itself. Houthi forces have also severed the main road connecting Taiz to Aden — the seat of the recognised government — and disrupted alternative mountain routes, leaving Taiz effectively besieged. Fuel prices in the city tripled last week. On Thursday, at least five people were killed near the al-Maashiq presidential palace in Aden after Houthi missile strikes. Prime Minister Shaya al-Zindani was present but unharmed. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree framed the attack as targeting Saudi-backed operational infrastructure. The strikes underscore the Houthis' capacity to project force deep into government-held territory, threatening not just frontlines but the political centre itself. Government officials describe a doctrine of "logistical flexibility and decentralisation" — dividing supply routes into semi-autonomous sectors supported by hubs in Shabwa, Marib, and the southern governorates. Deputy Justice Minister Faisal al-Majidi says forces are fighting for high ground overlooking major roads to protect supply arteries. The strategic district of al-Waziiya in Taiz governorate is a current focus, as it overlooks the Red Sea coast and could relieve Taiz's western approaches. Saudi Arabia is the indispensable variable. Riyadh acknowledged airstrikes against Houthi forces for the first time since a 2022 truce after the Dawn of Yemen launch. The Saudi-led coalition claims to have destroyed hundreds of high-value targets since early October. Colonel Wadah al-Dubaish, spokesperson for government-aligned Joint Forces, described Saudi support as "a decisive factor in the conflict," noting the Houthis possess Iranian-supplied ballistic and cruise missiles and a large fighter pool that the government cannot match alone. But the deepest vulnerability is internal. Multiple military units operate under different command structures with different funding sources. The Presidential Leadership Council established the Supreme Military Committee in January to integrate all anti-Houthi forces, but the September Red Sea coast losses exposed the gap between organisational charts and battlefield reality. Forces appeared unable to respond quickly to the Houthi advance — a coordination failure, not a firepower shortage. Earlier in the year, government forces defeated separatist Southern Transitional Council fighters who had been backed by the UAE, removing one layer of fragmentation but not solving the underlying problem. Researcher Adnan al-Jabarni argues that coordination is improving and that Houthi attacks on supply lines will intensify anti-Houthi operations rather than slow them. Al-Majidi calls coordination "the true litmus test" for Dawn of Yemen's success. Both framings point to the same conclusion: the offensive's fate depends less on Saudi bombs or Iranian missiles than on whether a coalition assembled from militias, regional forces, and a nominal national army can function as a unified military. Taiz — besieged, cut off, fuel-starved — is the live experiment.
