Jordan's air force struck southern Syria's Deraa and Suwayda provinces on Monday evening, killing what Amman called 'more than 20 ISIL fighters' in retaliation for last week's attack on a Greek Orthodox church in Karak that killed nine people and wounded 34. King Abdullah II had promised an 'iron fist' response. Three suspects were arrested the same day. The problem is the body count doesn't match the narrative. Images spread of a grandmother and her three grandchildren killed in al-Taff village, Deraa province. An 80-year-old man named Riyad Karrad was killed in Nassib. A 60-year-old named Mutlaq Abu al-Khalil was killed in Shuhayb, Suwayda. Three other family members were wounded. These are not ISIL fighters. The diplomatic contradiction is sharp. Jordan claims the strikes were 'carried out in coordination with authorities in Damascus.' Syria's Foreign Ministry says it informed Jordan of its 'complete reservation' and that the strikes took place 'without prior coordination or notification.' An official called them 'treacherous.' Both statements are public and on the record. Analysts frame this as a dual domestic-legitimacy problem. Amman needs to demonstrate security competence after an unprecedented attack on a Christian church in the tribal heartland of Karak. Damascus cannot appear to have approved strikes that killed Syrian families. As researcher Navvar Saban put it: 'If people feel Damascus is more concerned with protecting the relationship with the Jordanians than accountability, some of the anger could turn inward.' The underlying relationship is load-bearing for both sides. Jordan wants refugee repatriation, border security against drug smuggling, and a strategic partner against Israeli annexation pressure. Syria needs trade partners and regional normalization after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Days before the strikes, the two foreign ministers were discussing a strategic partnership and preparing another meeting of their High Coordination Council. Syrian customs authorities closed the Nassib border crossing Tuesday before reopening it Wednesday — a brief but pointed signal. Damascus has proposed a joint security committee for border security. The language is conciliatory, but the structural tension is real: Jordan has launched multiple strikes into Syria since 2023, and some — including a January 2024 strike documented by Human Rights Watch — have killed women and children before. The pattern is clear. Jordan conducts cross-border strikes with impunity whenever domestic security pressure demands it, killing civilians in the process. Damascus objects verbally but prioritizes the bilateral relationship. Without an accountability mechanism — an independent investigation, named responsibility for targeting decisions — civilian deaths in southern Syria remain a recurring externality of Jordanian security theater.
