The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022 to end one of Africa's deadliest modern conflicts, has effectively collapsed. Ethiopian government forces and allied militias have retaken Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, after more than a week of intense fighting that erupted September 23 when the TPLF and its allies seized three airfields. Reports from the ground describe TPLF fighters abandoning positions, looting of government facilities, and a city sliding toward lawlessness. The fighting is not confined to Tigray. Federal forces and the Tigray Peace Force — a pro-government Tigrayan armed group — captured the strategically critical town of Alamata near Tigray's southern border with Amhara. Alamata functions as a supply hub for troops, fuel, and food, giving federal forces a staging ground for their northward advance on Mekelle. Fighting has also spread into Amhara's North Wollo, where the Ethiopian military claims approximately 270 Tigrayan fighters killed and more than 200 wounded, and into Afar, where offensives threaten the Djibouti supply corridor through which most Ethiopian imports pass. The conflict breached the capital for the first time when an explosion was reported at the Ministry of Defence in Addis Ababa early Thursday. This is a significant escalation — the previous Tigray war, which killed an estimated several hundred thousand people, never reached the federal capital in this manner. The psychological and political impact of fighting touching Addis Ababa should not be underestimated. The regional dimension has already materialized. Eritrea severed all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, accusing Addis Ababa of "incessant hostility" including infringements on its coastal areas and arming opposition fighters. Ethiopia, in turn, accuses Eritrea of backing the TPLF and the Alliance for Survival. The 2018 rapprochement between the two countries — which won Abiy Ahmed a Nobel Peace Prize — is now fully unwound. Both countries find themselves on opposing sides in Sudan's civil war as well, creating a web of proxy conflicts across the Horn. The humanitarian cost is mounting rapidly. At least 52 civilians have been killed. Doctors Without Borders reports a surge in wounded across the north. Amnesty International has documented credible reports of destruction of civilian objects through shelling and air strikes, intensified forced conscription, and other potential violations of international humanitarian law. The organization has called on the African Union's Peace and Security Council to convene an emergency session, noting the AU was a guarantor of the now-collapsed ceasefire. The strategic geography makes containment difficult. Afar's position along the Djibouti corridor means fighting there threatens Ethiopia's economic lifeline. The Red Sea dimension adds another layer: Yemen's Houthis operate just across from Eritrea, the US-Israel confrontation with Iran raises stakes over maritime trade routes, and Somalia's fragmentation invites further foreign power competition along the coast. Laura Hammond of SOAS University of London told Al Jazeera that regional spillover "is already playing out" and warned of strong possibilities that Eritrea will deepen its ground involvement in Tigray and that the conflict could inflame relations with and inside Sudan. What distinguishes this moment from the 2020-2022 war is the density of simultaneous crises in the Horn. Ethiopia is not fighting one war — it faces active fronts in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, and now potentially its own capital, while its diplomatic architecture with Eritrea has collapsed and the broader region is already fractured by Sudan's civil war and great-power competition over Red Sea access. The Pretoria Agreement's failure removes the one institutional framework that was supposed to prevent exactly this scenario.
