Fifty-one large US oil and gas companies earned more than $130bn in profits during the six months from April through September, according to a New York Times estimate. In the same period last year, before the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, those same firms collectively earned less than $47bn. The gain is not from new production or innovation — it is from a supply-side shock that raised the price of the same barrel of oil. American consumers absorbed the other side of this ledger. Brown University's Climate Solutions Lab calculates households have spent an extra $150bn on petrol and diesel since the war began, roughly $1,150 per household. Democratic Representative Jim McGovern captured the arithmetic on X: "We're not making a 'freaking fortune,' we're PAYING a 'freaking fortune.'" The extraction runs through specific chokepoints. Iran effectively blocked most vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz; the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian oil and gas in retaliation. Iran and Iran-backed groups carried out at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure across the six GCC member states, according to ACLED. The Bab al-Mandeb strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden is now also a theatre of war as fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis escalates. Every closed waterway is a price multiplier for firms with secure domestic facilities. The refining sector tells the sharpest story. Valero Energy's third-quarter profit increased more than sixfold, reaching $6.83bn. Phillips 66 announced its highest quarterly profit on record — net income jumping to $5.62bn from $133m a year earlier. These are not firms that discovered new efficiency. They are firms positioned behind secure infrastructure while competitors' refineries in the Middle East and Russia sustained heavy damage. As geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller put it, the war "created a risk premium that US-based operators are structurally well placed to monetise." Gulf producers face the inverse problem. Higher oil prices should benefit exporters, but physical damage to infrastructure, higher operating costs, and prolonged insecurity mean they cannot fully capture the upside. ISPI fellow Naser al-Tamimi noted that damage to Middle Eastern and Russian refineries, disrupted Hormuz shipments, and sanctions-related trade frictions have intensified shortages while "relatively secure US facilities and access to discounted crude strengthen these gains." The profits are geographic rent, not productive advantage. The commodity shock extends well beyond fuel. The World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook projects commodity prices rising 23 percent this year. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization reported world food commodity prices rose a further 1.5 percent in September, reaching their highest level since late 2022, driven by trade disruptions in the Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz alongside adverse weather. Oil prices briefly dipped after a June memorandum of understanding, then soared again when talks broke down — the pattern of a market held hostage to diplomatic fragility. The structural question is what happens next. Rabobank senior energy strategist Florence Schmit warned that prices across all markets exposed to this supply shock will remain high into next year unless governments intervene. Miller added a longer-term caveat: windfall profits strengthen oil company balance sheets now, but sustained high prices risk recession and could accelerate the transition to renewable energy. Trump, meanwhile, has blamed high fuel prices on Ukraine and pressured Zelenskyy to halt strikes on Russian refineries — a framing that deflects from the Iran war's direct role in the price surge. The $130bn is not wealth creation. It is a war tax collected by private firms.
