The Houthis struck the al-Maashiq Presidential Palace in Aden with five missiles on Thursday, killing five people including two bodyguards of Prime Minister Shaya al-Zindani. The next day, two more missiles landed within 500 metres of a Yemenia passenger jet preparing for takeoff at Aden International Airport. The internationally recognised government blamed the Houthis for both attacks. The Houthis claimed they were targeting Saudi military operations headquarters and a military camp adjacent to the airport. Aden is not a random target. It is the interim capital of the internationally recognised Yemeni government, which relocated there after the Houthis seized Sanaa by force in 2014. The al-Maashiq Palace is the physical seat of whatever governing authority remains outside Houthi control. Striking it is a direct challenge to the government's claim to sovereignty, and to Saudi Arabia's ability to protect its client. The immediate trigger is the collapse of the 2022 truce. Fighting resumed in July. In September, the Houthis launched a lightning offensive along the Red Sea coast and seized territory overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb strait — one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. On October 4, the Presidential Leadership Council announced Operation Dawn of Yemen with Saudi air support, deploying 100 fighter jets in the coalition's first acknowledged air campaign since 2022. The counteroffensive has so far failed to reverse Houthi gains. The strategic geography is now extremely dangerous. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in March amid US strikes, forcing Saudi Arabia to reroute oil exports westward through its East-West pipeline to Red Sea terminals including the Yanbu hub. The Houthis, who now control the Bab al-Mandeb approach, announced a blockade on Saudi ships. On Friday, the Saudi coalition intercepted a ballistic missile headed for Yanbu. Saudi Arabia's two maritime oil export routes are now simultaneously threatened — Hormuz by Iran directly, the Red Sea by its proxy. The human toll is mounting on all sides. The Houthi-run Health Ministry reported 124 civilians killed and 327 wounded in coalition strikes since September 3. The Taiz Axis military command claimed 168 Houthi fighters killed and 210 wounded in fighting around Taiz governorate. The 2020 Aden airport attack killed at least 22 people, establishing a precedent the Houthis are now escalating from. Diplomatic channels are stalled. Saudi deputy minister Rayed Krimly said Iran encouraged the escalation and that the Houthis had rejected talks in Oman. Tehran denied any role and offered to mediate. The UN Security Council condemned escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. UN special envoy Hans Grundberg told the Security Council on October 9 that Yemen had slid back into full-scale war. Canada condemned the palace attack and called for de-escalation. The structural problem is that every actor's incentives now point toward escalation. The Houthis have strategic leverage they have never held before — physical control over the Bab al-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia cannot tolerate threats to both its oil export routes simultaneously. Iran benefits from maintaining pressure on Saudi energy infrastructure through deniable proxies. And the internationally recognised government, unable to retake territory militarily, depends entirely on a Saudi coalition whose own infrastructure is under fire. The 2022 truce was not peace — it was a pause that allowed the Houthis to reposition. That repositioning is now complete.
