Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly blamed Washington for the collapse of an interim deal meant to end the US-Israeli war against Iran that began on February 28 under the codename "Epic Fury." In the same breath, Pezeshkian urged both sides to return to the table and "conclude it" — a dual posture of grievance and olive branch that reflects Tehran's constrained options after losing its supreme leader in the war's opening strikes. The threat environment is escalating rapidly. Trump said Friday he "may do another little Epic Fury," while the IRGC warned through semi-official Fars News Agency that even limited strikes would trigger a response "several times greater." Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi declared the US military would not be allowed in the Gulf "under any circumstances and at any time," adding that Trump could only "dream" of seeing US forces enter the Gulf. This is maximalist rhetoric from both capitals with no visible off-ramp. The domestic political calendars are doing the driving. Israeli voters go to the polls Tuesday. Trump's Republican Party faces November 3 midterm elections with Democrats potentially taking both the House and Senate — a result that would cripple Trump's final two-plus years. Netanyahu has said he remains committed to overthrowing Iran's government. Neither leader has a political incentive to de-escalate before their respective votes. Inside Iran, the power structure is reconstituting under extraordinary pressure. Mojtaba Khamenei replaced his father as supreme leader after the elder Khamenei was assassinated in the February 28 strikes. He has not been seen in public since assuming power in early March. Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly met the new supreme leader this week, and judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei discussed war compensation and corruption — signals of a regime trying to project institutional continuity while absorbing catastrophic leadership loss. Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani laid out Tehran's position plainly: Iran "seeks peace but will respond to any aggression with severe consequences." She added that those "who harbour the illusion of destroying Iran must correct their calculations." The language is calibrated — not initiating, but promising asymmetric retaliation. This is deterrence rhetoric, not surrender rhetoric. The core structural problem is that both sides are now locked into escalation dynamics driven by electoral timelines rather than strategic logic. A resumed military campaign would serve short-term domestic purposes for Trump and Netanyahu while deepening a conflict with no clear endgame. Iran's new leadership, untested and invisible, faces its own pressure to demonstrate strength precisely when its institutions are most fragile. What remains absent is any credible mediating mechanism. The interim deal collapsed. No neutral broker has emerged. European and Middle Eastern ministers have urged diplomacy, but neither Washington nor Tehran has identified terms that would allow face-saving de-escalation. The window between now and the Israeli election Tuesday — and then the US midterms in November — is when the incentives for provocation are strongest and the guardrails are weakest.
