Major General Nitzan Alon, the Israeli army's lead hostage negotiator at the start of the Gaza war, has stated publicly that the October 2025 ceasefire and prisoner exchange could have been achieved approximately one year sooner — without compromising Israel's strategic objectives. Speaking on a Washington Institute for Near East Policy webcast marking three years since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, Alon called the prolongation of the war unnecessary and Netanyahu's "total victory" framing "false." The arithmetic of delay is stark. The eventual deal exchanged nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners for 20 Israeli captives. Alon's claim is that some captives who were killed or died during captivity would have returned alive under an earlier agreement. Former Israeli diplomat Alan Pinkas reinforced this, telling Al Jazeera that a deal was possible "very soon after the Hamas attack in October 2023" and calling the two-year delay "not just a missed opportunity" but "tragic." Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani added a critical detail this week: Hamas proposed releasing all captives in exchange for a limited ceasefire shortly after October 7, and Israeli officials "rejected to entertain the idea." Doha's message, Al Thani said, was delivered on day one. The Israeli side "were not interested to engage." Alon has been consistent on this point. In July, he also criticised Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich for opposing agreements at various stages while later claiming credit for the captives' return. The pattern is one where coalition politics — particularly the far-right flank's insistence on continued military operations and settlement expansion — functioned as a veto on diplomacy. The timing matters domestically. Israel's October 27 legislative election is less than a month away, and polls show a knife-edge race. A Haaretz report claiming that UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu about a possible attack before October 7 has already fuelled public anger. Netanyahu has threatened to sue over the report, calling it "fabricated." Pinkas assessed that Alon's comments are unlikely to shift the election outcome, arguing that existing polls already "reflect public anger" over the government's failures. But the structural damage is done: a senior military insider, not an opposition politician, is saying on the record that the government's war aims were achieved long before the war ended — and that the extra time was paid for in lives. The core question is not whether a deal was possible earlier. Multiple senior figures — Israeli, Qatari, diplomatic — now converge on that point. The question is who benefited from the delay. The evidence points toward a coalition whose survival depended on continued conflict, extracting political longevity at the cost of hostage lives, Palestinian civilian deaths now exceeding 74,000, and a war that consumed resources and credibility Israel will not easily recover.
