Hadi Nasrallah sells orange juice from a pushcart in Nabatieh because that is all he has left. His home in Khiam was destroyed by Israeli bombing. His village is among dozens across southern Lebanon currently under Israeli military occupation. In a few weeks, Israelis vote. Nasrallah expects nothing to change. The structural reason for that pessimism is simple: Israel's political opposition is not offering a different policy toward Lebanon. Gadi Eisenkot, the former army chief of staff challenging Netanyahu through the Yashar party, is the architect of the Dahiyeh Doctrine — the strategy of deploying massive force against civilian infrastructure as deterrence. He has criticized Netanyahu not for waging war but for halting attacks on Beirut under US pressure. Both men demand a demilitarized southern Lebanon, Hezbollah's disarmament, and unconstrained Israeli military freedom of action across Lebanese territory. The numbers tell the story of extraction. Since October 2023, Israeli military operations have killed at least 8,920 people and injured 30,595 others in Lebanon. Nearly 6 percent of Lebanese territory along the border remains occupied. The diplomatic track has been frozen since early August, with no negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese officials. Israel is conditioning further withdrawals on Hezbollah's full disarmament — a precondition Hezbollah explicitly rejects, threatening to confront any government attempt to enforce it. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is caught in a vise. He told the UN General Assembly that the framework agreement with Israel must be translated into practical steps under a clear timetable with a verification mechanism. Israel responded by stepping up attacks on southern Lebanon. The army command is reportedly discussing "a new phase in operations." The debate among Israeli political rivals is not whether to maintain dominance but how. Across the border in southern Syria, the dynamic mirrors Lebanon. Israeli forces occupy hundreds of square kilometers of Syrian territory, and the current leadership says the military is not leaving. Eisenkot appears to intend to use the occupation as leverage against Syria's new government — not to negotiate withdrawal but to extract concessions. The pre-election period may be the most dangerous stretch. Ali Jarmak, a Nabatieh resident, told Al Jazeera the real concern is what happens between now and polling day. Netanyahu is trailing in polls, creating an incentive structure where military escalation serves as domestic political currency. The occupied territories of southern Lebanon and southern Syria become staging grounds for electoral theatre — destruction as campaign strategy. The core problem is bipartisan consensus in Israel around the security framework that produces this violence. Elections rotate personnel, not doctrine. The Dahiyeh Doctrine predates Netanyahu's current government and will survive it. Lebanon's population absorbs the costs of a military posture both Israeli parties treat as non-negotiable.
