Trump's unilateral 'energy ceasefire' — announced Sunday, never confirmed by Moscow, and never reciprocated — lasted roughly four days. Ukraine struck a refinery in Ryazan, 180 kilometres south of Moscow, with drones on Thursday. A fire broke out after drone debris hit the site, according to Russia's defence ministry. Zelenskyy told the Financial Times that Kyiv was 'done' with the pause and accused Washington of weakening Ukraine's battlefield position by allegedly withdrawing crucial intelligence sharing. The mechanics of the failed ceasefire reveal the asymmetry at its core. The US pressured Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian refineries and proposed a deal to purchase 1.8 million tonnes of diesel from Russia, framing it as a route to lower American fuel prices. Ukraine complied for several days. Russia did not. Moscow continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure throughout the pause. The arrangement amounted to asking the weaker party to disarm a leverage tool while the stronger party kept fighting. Zelenskyy made the extraction explicit: 'This politically is not simple [in America], because everybody will want to ask how it can be when some people are surviving, fighting, dying — and you make business with the guys with such aggression.' He offered to pause refinery strikes again, but only if the US supplied Patriot interceptors — converting a one-sided concession into a bilateral trade. The Starlink dimension adds a second pressure vector. Zelenskyy alleged that Ukraine's access to SpaceX's satellite internet service had been restricted, potentially leaving forces more vulnerable. Ukraine's military uses SpaceX's military-grade Starshield system for both offensive and defensive operations. Elon Musk responded on X by saying only the US military and Trump had authority to limit Starshield's usage and speed, then posted separately: 'Time for Zelensky to go.' Trump himself called on Saturday for Zelenskyy to be replaced. The European response is scrambling to fill the gap. Zelenskyy meets EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday, pushing for tougher sanctions on Moscow and faster delivery of support. The EU has pledged $50bn in support for Ukraine next year, but Kyiv plans to spend $175bn on defence — a shortfall of $125bn. Dutch PM Rob Jetten called on EU leaders to 'step up' their game. The structural question is whether Europe can replace the US as Ukraine's primary backer at anything close to the required scale. Three distinct American leverage points are now visible: intelligence sharing (allegedly withdrawn or restricted), Starlink/Starshield access (allegedly throttled), and economic pressure via the diesel deal. Each one individually constrains Ukraine's military effectiveness. Together they represent a coordinated squeeze on a dependent ally — whether orchestrated or emergent. Trump has denied stopping intelligence sharing with Ukraine. But the pattern is clear: the US is converting Ukraine's dependency into transactional leverage, attempting to extract concessions (refinery ceasefire, diesel purchases) while offering uncertain returns (Patriot interceptors remain undelivered). Ukraine's response — resuming strikes — is the only card Kyiv holds that doesn't require American permission to play.
