The architecture of American leverage over Russia is being dismantled piece by piece, and the stated justification — peace negotiations — is doing none of the structural work required to actually end the war. Trump's Friday night executive order waived parts of the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, a law he himself signed in September. The sanctions were scheduled to take effect Sunday. Instead, they're now subject to a 60-day "review" that gives Moscow exactly what it needs: time and revenue. The diesel deal is the clearest tell. The Trump administration authorized imports of more than 300,000 metric tonnes of Russian diesel into US and global markets, framed as consumer relief. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called it "a carrot to try to end the war, not an economic lifeline" for Russia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued the diesel "is going to be sold one way or the other." Both framings dodge the core question: sanctions work by restricting revenue streams, and this deal reopens one. The fungibility argument — someone else would buy it — is the logic that unravels every sanctions regime ever built. Simultaneously, the US paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine for three days during active ballistic missile attacks, leaving Kyiv blind to incoming strikes that only American surveillance can detect. Zelenskyy confirmed publicly: "Only the United States has this unique intelligence to tell our side when Russia uses ballistic missiles. And we didn't get it during ballistic attacks during three days." The sharing was eventually resumed, but the signal sent — that American protection is now conditional and revocable — is itself a form of coercion. The Starshield situation is equally revealing. Ukraine's access to SpaceX's military-grade satellite system has been restricted, with relay speed limits making it nearly impossible to intercept Russia's upgraded jet-powered long-range drones. Rubio confirmed Sunday that Ukraine is "currently blocked" from Starshield, with access for deep strikes "under discussion." Musk blamed the government; the White House rebuked Musk. The net effect on the battlefield is the same: degraded Ukrainian capability at a moment of active Russian escalation. Zelenskyy, boxed in, is doing what he can with language. He described conversations with Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner, said his team is in "virtually nonstop communication" with US counterparts, and acknowledged that "a lot depends" on the US position. He also warned that the sanctions waiver could embolden Putin and prolong the war. Trump responded on Truth Social by accusing Zelenskyy of never wanting peace — a rhetorical move that shifts blame for the war's continuation onto its victim. Meanwhile, the war itself continues at full intensity. Russian strikes killed two people in the western Volyn region near the Polish border and injured at least five others across Ukraine. Overnight attacks killed a woman and injured a six-year-old in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine hit back with its largest drone strike on St Petersburg since the war began, targeting an oil refinery, a depot, an Ozon warehouse, and a VKontakte data centre, killing at least one person. Trump called Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure "a disgrace" — while simultaneously importing Russian energy products. The 60-day review window is the real play. It gives Russia two months of eased pressure with no binding commitment to negotiate seriously. If the pattern holds, the review will be extended or the sanctions quietly shelved. The bipartisan pushback is real but untested — the act was passed with broad support, and Trump signed it, but executive discretion on enforcement is wide. The structural question is whether Congress will enforce its own law or allow the executive to hollow it out.
