The African National Congress is heading toward its worst-ever municipal election performance, sitting at roughly 32 percent with over 60 percent of votes counted. The Democratic Alliance trails at 25 percent, and Jacob Zuma's MK party underperforms polling at 8.5 percent. No party is anywhere close to governing alone in most of the country's major metropolitan municipalities. The trajectory is unambiguous. From nearly 70 percent nationally in 2004, the ANC fell below 50 percent in the 2021 municipal elections, managed just above 40 percent in the 2024 nationals, and now sits at 32 percent locally. This is not a dip — it is a structural decline spanning two decades, driven by cascading failures in water supply, electricity provision, and basic municipal services that voters experience daily. Turnout tells its own story. An estimated 54.5 percent of registered voters cast ballots — up from 46 percent in the pandemic-hit 2021 elections, but still meaning nearly half of registered voters stayed home. Of 29.2 million registered, 15.9 million voted. The increased turnout did not rescue the ANC; if anything, it punished it, suggesting that mobilized voters are increasingly mobilized against the governing party rather than for it. The DA is the clearest beneficiary. It is projected to retain Cape Town with 56 percent — a genuine municipal majority — and leads in Johannesburg at 34 percent. Its leader Geordin Hill-Lewis has already declared victory in Cape Town. Helen Zille, 75, spearheaded the Johannesburg campaign, and the party's urban strategy appears to be converting ANC fatigue into DA votes in the country's economic centers. Zuma's MK party is the surprise underperformer. Tipped by some polls to potentially secure an outright majority in Durban, CSIR projections put it at just 32 percent there. The MK party's national third-place finish at 8.5 percent suggests its appeal may be narrower and more regionally concentrated than its media profile implied, raising questions about whether personality-driven splinter parties can sustain national ambition. The practical consequence is coalition governance as permanent condition. With outright majorities far from assured in most major metros, another round of complex coalition negotiations is inevitable. South Africa is now governed nationally by a ten-party unity arrangement, and this municipal round will replicate that fragmentation at the local level — the level where water, electricity, and roads are actually delivered. Final results are expected Sunday, but the structural picture is already clear. The ANC's decline is not cyclical — it is generational. The party that ended apartheid cannot deliver functioning municipalities, and voters are distributing their support across an increasingly fragmented field. The question for 2029 is not whether the ANC can recover, but whether any coalition configuration can actually govern.
