Donald Trump has announced a 32-day multi-state campaign tour ahead of the November midterm elections, positioning himself as the central figure in the Republican Party's bid to hold both chambers of Congress. The announcement comes as a Wall Street Journal poll places his approval at 37 percent — the lowest for any president heading into midterms since the outlet began tracking the metric in 1990 under George H.W. Bush. The midterms are widely framed as a referendum on Trump's second term, and for good reason. If Democrats take control of the House and Senate, Trump's legislative agenda stalls for two years. Trump himself has acknowledged the stakes, speculating that a Democratic sweep could lead to a third impeachment. The 32-day itinerary targets toss-up states including Texas and Ohio, where the margin between holding and losing power is thinnest. The structural problem for Trump is that his war against Iran has roiled global energy markets, driving up the cost of living — the exact issue voters cite as their primary frustration. This is not an external shock he can distance himself from; it is a direct consequence of his own policy decision. Every dollar added to a gallon of gas is a dollar subtracted from his approval rating, and no amount of rally energy can paper over a household budget squeeze. Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security has spent $20 million producing campaign-style advertisements lauding Trump's accomplishments — a use of taxpayer funds that has drawn bipartisan condemnation. Democratic Senator Patty Murray called the ads "illegal and a shockingly corrupt misuse of taxpayer dollars" in a formal letter to Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin. Republican lawmakers have joined the criticism, a notable crack in party discipline. Trump's allies insist he can mobilize low-propensity voters — people who don't normally show up for midterms — as he did in 2024. This is the bet: that the personal turnout machine can overcome structural headwinds. But low-propensity voter mobilization is a strategy built on enthusiasm, and enthusiasm is hard to manufacture when the cost of groceries and gasoline is the dominant kitchen-table conversation. The Republican Party held its first-ever midterm political convention in Texas this month, with Trump delivering the keynote. The symbolism is clear: this is a party that has fully merged its institutional identity with one person's political brand. If that brand is at 37 percent, the party's congressional candidates carry that weight whether they want to or not. The 32-day tour is not a sign of strength. It is a sign that the White House knows the numbers are bad and is deploying the one asset it believes can overcome structural disadvantage: Trump himself. Whether that asset is appreciating or depreciating is the question the midterms will answer.
