The US-Russia diesel deal and the reported disruption of Starlink/Starshield services on October 13-14 have crystallised a painful reality for Kyiv: Trump's tilt toward Moscow is not an aberration but a recurring pattern. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said on Wednesday, "It's painful when President Trump chooses one side, not our side." By Friday, he accused Washington of continuing to throttle Starlink and promising Russia new concessions. The pattern, however, is not linear. Trump tilted toward Moscow at the August 2025 Anchorage summit with Putin, then returned to conditional support amid Russian intransigence and European diplomacy. The White House walked back proposals to recognise Crimea as de jure Russian and dropped demands for a full Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. The Europe-pays-for-US-weapons arrangement continues functioning, and intelligence sharing persists despite reports of selective withholding. The diesel deal itself faces bipartisan congressional opposition, including from Republican senators. Russia, meanwhile, is escalating. Ukrainian cities face daily attacks from ballistic missiles and upgraded jet-propelled drones while air defences struggle. Moscow never embraced Trump's proposed partial ceasefire on energy strikes, yet now frames Kyiv as the spoiler after Ukrainian attacks resumed — including a Ryazan refinery strike Thursday that Trump called "a disgrace." Fighting has spilled into NATO territory, with ships carrying Ukrainian grain attacked in Romanian waters. Russia is expanding hybrid operations across Europe to disrupt weapons supplies and sway opinion in countries like Germany. The financial strain is acute. The EU's 90-billion-euro loan authorised in April may be exhausted before end of 2027. Estimates suggest Kyiv needs an additional 70 billion euros for defence and civilian purposes in 2027 alone. That collides with negotiations over the EU's 2028-2034 budget, where some members are pushing for deep cuts. The question of whether to tap frozen Russian financial assets is resurfacing, while Trump calls for some of those funds to be released. Europe has nonetheless held together more than expected. European Council President Antonio Costa said Friday, "This is no time to withdraw the support to Ukraine. This is no time to relieve Russia's sanctions." The EU opened two clusters in accession talks with Ukraine and imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia. Zelenskyy visited London for talks with Prime Minister Andy Burnham and King Charles III before heading to Brussels. But the structural gap is undeniable. Europe has no alternative to Starlink. It cannot deliver enough air-defence systems and interceptors without US support. European intelligence agencies can supply some data but cannot replicate American capabilities. Investments in strategic autonomy will take a decade to bear fruit in the best-case scenario. Most critically, Europeans have little leverage to bring Putin to the negotiating table — the US has failed to twist his arm and under Trump has moved from sticks to carrots. The resulting strategy is one of managed dependency. Zelenskyy and the Europeans will keep trying to hold Trump onside, smooth over differences, and tell him that standing firm against Moscow is the best path to his legacy — a position with Republican support. They are hoping the White House overture to Russia fizzles after the midterms. As Zelenskyy reminded Brussels: "If we fall, 20 million Ukrainians will come to Europe. Stay strong, defend our country." The strategy is to wait it out — first the winter, then the Trump presidency.
