Kushner and Witkoff Land in Moscow as Europe Watches From Dublin — Two Diplomatic Tracks, Zero Leverage Overlap

US envoys bring an updated peace plan to Putin hours after Abu Dhabi talks yielded only a prisoner swap. Europe, excluded from the table, convenes 40+ leaders in Dublin to assert relevance.

Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff touched down in Moscow Thursday morning, met planeside by Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's special envoy — a detail that signals the Kremlin wants to project seriousness about the channel even as substance remains elusive. The visit follows two days of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi that produced agreement on another major prisoner exchange but no movement on the war's core disputes: territory, sovereignty, and the future of Donbas.

The Abu Dhabi round was the first direct Russia-Ukraine negotiation mediated by Washington in nine months, and its thin results underscore the structural impasse. Kyiv has flatly rejected Putin's demand that Ukraine surrender all of its eastern Donbas region. The US acknowledged differences remain on major issues but claimed progress on post-war security guarantees — a framing that papers over the fact that security guarantees mean nothing without agreement on the borders they would protect. The US delegation reportedly carries an updated peace proposal to Moscow and will press Putin to invite European partners into the negotiation process. This is the quiet fault line: Ukraine and Washington want Europeans at the table; Moscow insists on excluding them. The exclusion is not incidental — it is strategic. Keeping Europe out fragments the Western coalition, forces bilateral dependence on Washington, and lets Russia negotiate with a counterparty whose staying power in Ukraine is openly questioned by its own president. Meanwhile, more than 40 European heads of state gathered in Dublin for a European Political Community summit focused on continental security. Zelenskyy, Canadian PM Mark Carney, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte attended. The optics are unmistakable: Europe is holding its own summit because it has been locked out of the room where decisions are being made. The EPC, established in 2022 as a forum bridging EU and non-EU countries, now functions partly as a coordination mechanism for allies who lack a seat at the negotiating table. Kushner and Witkoff are scheduled to meet Zelenskyy in Dublin on Friday, creating a 48-hour shuttle between Moscow and the European summit that positions Washington as the sole interlocutor between all parties. From Kyiv, Al Jazeera's correspondent reported bluntly that Ukrainians do not believe the Moscow meeting will yield results, noting that the biggest achievement of the talks so far is that they happened at all. France signaled that the EU will approve new sanctions against Russia on Monday targeting 150 additional entities and 50 banks, with France proposing the bulk of the additions. The sanctions announcement — timed to coincide with the Moscow visit — is Europe's way of reminding all parties that it retains economic leverage even without a seat at the peace table. Whether that leverage translates into influence over the deal's terms is the open question. The structural picture is clear: Washington monopolizes the diplomatic channel, Moscow benefits from a fragmented Western front, Ukraine has no leverage beyond its refusal to capitulate, and Europe asserts relevance through sanctions and summits while the actual negotiations happen elsewhere. The risk is a deal shaped by the two parties least affected by its consequences.