The Oslo meeting is framed as diplomacy, but the structural reality is an asymmetric squeeze. Zelenskyy requested US participation in talks hosted by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, with Finland's PM also present. Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner will attend remotely. The setting suggests European solidarity; the dynamics suggest American coercion. The real negotiation is not between Ukraine and Russia — it's between Ukraine and the United States. Before the Oslo talks, Zelenskyy disclosed a conversation with Secretary of State Marco Rubio about missile interceptors, intelligence sharing, and Starlink access. Last week, Zelenskyy accused Washington of withholding intelligence from Kyiv and throttling Starshield, SpaceX's military-grade satellite network that Ukraine's armed forces depend on for drone operations. Rubio apparently committed to nothing. Zelenskyy called the conversation "constructive" — diplomatic language for "they didn't say no but didn't say yes." Trump's public posture toward Zelenskyy has shifted from impatient to openly hostile. He has accused Zelenskyy of not wanting peace, suggested someone else should negotiate for Ukraine, and — most consequentially — lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports. Zelenskyy called that move a "reward" for Putin. He is correct. The sanctions relief was motivated by Trump's desire to reduce US energy prices, which have spiked partly due to the US-Israel confrontation with Iran. Moscow's revenue windfall is a side effect Trump is willing to accept. The battlefield continues unabated during these diplomatic maneuvers. At least three Ukrainians died Tuesday in Russian strikes, including a drone hit on the Kyiv-Odesa highway. DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, confirmed three facilities in the Odesa region were struck, leaving over 32,000 families without power. Ukraine hit back with drones targeting an oil pumping station in Russia's Tambov Oblast. Norway's role as host is deliberate. Oslo offers a European venue outside NATO's formal structures, and Store's involvement signals that smaller NATO allies are trying to maintain a mediation channel even as Washington's commitment to Ukraine visibly wavers. Finland, which shares a 1,340-km border with Russia and joined NATO in 2023 precisely because of the invasion, has skin in this game that transcends Ukrainian sovereignty alone. The pattern forming is not peace negotiation but leverage redistribution. Every tool Washington holds — Patriot interceptors, intelligence sharing, Starlink bandwidth, sanctions enforcement — is being selectively withheld or relaxed in ways that weaken Kyiv's position before any talks with Moscow begin. The Europeans in the room can offer political solidarity but not the military materiel Ukraine needs to maintain its negotiating position. The 20-year question is stark: if the US continues calibrating its support to extract concessions from Ukraine rather than Russia, the precedent is that security guarantees from Washington are revocable leverage, not durable commitments. Every alliance the US holds — from Taipei to Tallinn — is watching Oslo.
