Australia's cost-of-living crisis has a profit problem. Ampol's net profit in the first half of the year rose 376% — from $180.2m to $857.2m — driven not by selling more fuel but by doubling refinery margins. Its Lytton refinery margin hit US$23.92 in the third quarter, up from US$10.62 a year earlier. Ampol's own ASX report described Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply constraints as 'net favourable' for its integrated supply chain. Viva Energy, owner of the Geelong oil refinery and Shell-branded fuel supplier, reported operating profit up 154% from $304.9m to $774.4m. Fuel volume sold rose just 1.3%. The profit surge came from the spread between input costs and output prices — petroleum and coal product manufacturers are charging far more than the increase in their own costs. Inpex, the Japanese gas company operating the Ichthys LNG project, expects full-year profit to hit a record ¥510 billion, buoyed by higher sales prices and stable operations. This is the same company actively lobbying against a proposed 25% tax on gas exports and a gas reservation policy, arguing in a Senate committee submission that its 'contribution to Australia extends beyond taxation.' The chart of what Inpex actually pays in Australian tax and royalties tells a different story. The structural absurdity runs deep. So much LNG is exported from Australia to Japan that Japan resells more of that gas to other countries than is consumed annually in all of eastern Australia. Resources Minister Madeleine King has championed the Ichthys project since 2018, celebrating that 'this project provides resilience and security for Japan.' The question of what resilience it provides to Australian gas users goes unanswered. Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser was asked directly whether companies needed to adjust to lower profitability to maintain social licence. He deflected to small business and future AI concerns. The central bank's position, in practice, is that record corporate profits contributing to inflation are not its problem — but the household interest rate consequences of that inflation very much are. The mechanism is clear: geopolitical disruption raises input prices, companies pass those costs through with expanded margins, profits surge, inflation stays elevated, and households absorb higher prices and higher interest rates simultaneously. The companies spending on lobbying and corporate-citizen marketing campaigns are the same ones extracting record rents from the disruption. Greg Jericho, Guardian columnist and chief economist at the Australia Institute, frames the pattern as systemic: governments and central banks consistently defend the status quo of rising corporate profits while households bear the adjustment costs. The question is not whether this is happening — the companies' own filings confirm it — but whether any institution with power will name it.
