Guinea-Bissau's transitional military government held a constitutional referendum on Sunday that, by its own account, passed with 70% approval on turnout exceeding 50%. The proposed charter transforms the country's semi-presidential system into a strong presidential one: the president gains unilateral power to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet ministers, dissolve parliament, and govern with minimal legislative constraint. Parliament itself shrinks from 102 seats to 65. The sequence matters. In November 2025, a disputed presidential election between incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo and challenger Fernando Dias Costa ended with the military seizing power before official results were announced. Embalo was briefly detained, then left the country. The junta established a National Transitional Council, which organized the referendum using institutions that exist only because of the coup. The opposition — led by the PAIGC, Guinea-Bissau's oldest party — called the entire process legally void and urged a boycott. The constitutional draft was produced without public consultation. Bubacar Ture of the Guinea-Bissau Human Rights League notes that no political parties, civil society organizations, traditional authorities, or religious leaders were involved in drafting the new charter. Provisions for constitutional oversight — the mechanisms that check executive power — have been stripped. The document was, in Ture's words, "produced in secret." The strategic logic is transparent: hold a referendum under military authority, embed a hyper-presidential system in the constitution, then hold elections in December under rules that guarantee the presidency dominates regardless of parliamentary outcomes. The 65-seat parliament becomes structurally subordinate. Even if opposition parties win legislative seats, the president can dismiss the prime minister and cabinet at will. Parliamentary elections become performative. Opposition figures dispute even the turnout figures. Fernando Dias Costa, the annulled election's main challenger, said "very few citizens took part" and warned that the public is "not prepared to simply accept political changes that are clearly unconstitutional and have not been publicly debated." PAIGC leader Domingos Simoes Pereira — detained after the coup, now under house arrest — rejected the referendum from Portugal. Guinea-Bissau fits a growing pattern across West and Central Africa. Togo, Chad, Uganda, Zimbabwe, and Guinea have all seen leaders use constitutional amendments to concentrate presidential authority. The playbook is remarkably consistent: a crisis provides the pretext, a transitional body produces a new charter, and a plebiscite under controlled conditions legitimizes the outcome. The difference here is the brazenness — less than ten months separates the coup from the constitutional rewrite. The December 6 elections are now the focal point. They are supposed to mark the return to civilian rule, but they will operate under a constitution written by the military and approved in a process the opposition considers illegitimate. Whether the elections produce a government with genuine democratic authority or merely install a civilian face on a military-designed power structure depends entirely on whether the opposition participates and whether international observers apply real scrutiny.
