German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul traveled to Budva, Montenegro this week to attend the annual Berlin Process foreign ministers' meeting, and left with pointed praise for the host country's EU trajectory. "Montenegro has made remarkable progress towards EU membership — it thus sets an example for the Western Balkans," he posted on X, alongside a photo embracing Montenegrin counterpart Ervin Ibrahimovic. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos also attended. The diplomatic optics matter because Montenegro is the acknowledged frontrunner among six Western Balkan candidates — Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and potential candidate Kosovo. The country has been pursuing EU membership for 22 years, adopted the euro as its de facto currency in 2002, declared independence from Serbia in 2006, and joined NATO in 2017. Public support for accession sits at around 80%. Montenegro's government is targeting 2028 as its accession year, which would make it the EU's 28th member state. That timeline looked increasingly plausible after the EU's enlargement commissioner flagged the possibility of completing technical negotiations by the end of 2025. Wadephul reinforced this trajectory with his statement that "those who are willing and able to join the European Union and meet the criteria can succeed in the coming years." But the structural picture across the region is deeply uneven. Albania is considered the next most promising candidate. Kosovo's path remains the most obstructed — five EU member states still refuse to recognize its independence from Serbia, creating a political veto before technical criteria even enter the conversation. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia each face distinct rule-of-law, governance, and diplomatic obstacles. Germany's role here is as a process convener, not a gatekeeper. The Berlin Process, launched in 2014, is a diplomatic framework designed to keep Western Balkan integration on the agenda between formal EU Council decisions. Wadephul's emphasis on "regional cooperation on reconciliation and reforms" signals that Berlin sees enlargement as a stabilization tool — anchoring the Balkans inside Western institutions before rival influences (Russia, China, Gulf capital) deepen their footholds. The generative case for Montenegro's accession is real but modest. A nation of 623,000 people already using the euro adds negligible economic mass to the EU, but the symbolic value of a successful Western Balkans accession could catalyze reform momentum across the region. The risk is that Montenegro becomes a one-off showcase — proof the process can work — while the harder cases (Serbia-Kosovo normalization, Bosnia's constitutional dysfunction) remain stuck for another decade. The honest read: this is incremental diplomacy working as designed. No breakthroughs, no crises, just a German foreign minister publicly affirming that the enlargement queue is moving. The real test is whether the EU's internal politics — where enlargement fatigue is a chronic condition — will match the rhetoric when the accession vote arrives.
