Germany's top intelligence officials used their annual public hearing Monday to deliver a message stripped of diplomatic cushioning: the country is already in a confrontation with Russia, and the timeline security planners assumed they had is gone. BfV President Sinan Selen said military scenarios envisioned for 2029 are playing out now in the intelligence domain. BND President Martin Jäger was blunt — no other country poses a more direct, comprehensive, and concrete threat to Germany than Russia. The threat architecture Moscow is deploying is deliberately sub-threshold but escalating. Sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, espionage, drone overflights of NATO territory, airspace violations in Moldova, and even assassination operations form what Jäger called a 'shadow war.' The attempted drone-rigged explosive attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport this summer — targeting a Ukrainian cargo plane — was cited as a concrete example, with Selen pointing to clear evidence of Russian involvement. A particularly alarming development is Russia's recruitment model. Intelligence chiefs described the increasing use of 'low-level agents' — people recruited locally via social media for espionage, transport services, or sabotage. Russian services are also now collaborating with organized crime groups, a convergence the agencies acknowledge they need to prepare for far more thoroughly. Jäger framed Russia's approach as deliberately shifting boundaries toward a 'new normal,' including testing NATO's response capacity through covert operations reminiscent of Crimea 2014. The strategic logic is straightforward. Germany is the linchpin of European support for Ukraine — military, financial, humanitarian. Moscow views Germany as the 'major obstacle to Russia's hegemonic power projection in Europe.' If Germany falters, European support for Ukraine unravels. When asked whether reducing Ukraine aid would make Germany safer, Jäger answered unequivocally: aid to Kyiv is in the national interest. China presents a different but persistent threat vector. The BfV warned against research collaborations and university access being used to siphon German know-how in artificial intelligence, quantum technology, hypersonic technology, and biotechnology. Connected vehicles and household appliances with Chinese components represent data-leak risks, with remote shutdown scenarios considered plausible in extreme cases. Domestically, far-right extremism is accelerating. Selen described an 'extremely alarming trend' of young, violence-prone actors forming international networks. MAD President Martina Rosenberg reported rising suspected extremism cases within the Bundeswehr, reflecting broader societal radicalization penetrating the armed forces. The intelligence chiefs used the threat picture to justify a planned expansion of powers — broader data collection, storage, automated analysis, and for the first time, offensive counterattack capabilities against sabotage and hacker operations. Jäger's closing was pointed: 'If we have these powers, then we will use them. And our adversaries will feel the consequences.' Green Party member Konstantin von Notz, from the Parliamentary Control Panel, pushed back, calling for greater oversight and predicting the Federal Constitutional Court will scrutinize the expansion. The tension between capability and accountability is the domestic fight this threat assessment is designed to win.
