The United States and Israel have developed specific plans for a short, intensive military operation against Iran targeting nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and missile and drone arsenals, according to the New York Times, citing senior US officials. The goal, per one official, is to force diplomatic concessions by further weakening Iran's economy. The Pentagon has instructed US Central Command to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations. President Trump posted on October 8 that the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, citing 'productive discussions' with Tehran. Polls show high energy prices from the Iran war are hurting Republican prospects. After the elections, that political constraint evaporates. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has campaigned explicitly on regime change in Iran, with Israel's own election set for October 27. Three US aircraft carrier strike groups will be positioned in the Arabian Sea by late November. Trump told Newsmax on October 15 he was considering strikes on Pickaxe Mountain near the Natanz nuclear complex, where US officials believe sensitive nuclear material has been moved underground. CNN reported Trump is also considering use of a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, though its above-ground blast wave has limited effectiveness against underground targets. Tehran's strategy centers on regime survival rather than matching US military strength. Ali Asghar Shafieian, media adviser to President Pezeshkian, told DW that Iran's advantage lies in crisis management, pointing to rapid replacement of senior officials killed in earlier strikes and ongoing reconstruction of missile and drone capabilities. Iran has warned regional governments that US military bases and critical infrastructure could become targets if neighboring states assist another operation. Foreign Minister Araghchi stated Iran is 'prepared to give diplomacy another chance' but warned that choosing war would result in 'an even greater strategic failure.' Tehran-based analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour told DW that Iran's preparations extend beyond military hardware to internal security: confronting armed opposition groups, preparing for protests, and preventing external military pressure from combining with domestic unrest. Another conflict would bring renewed internet restrictions and stronger mobilization of government supporters. 'The ultimate objective is to convince the United States that regime change through military action is impossible,' he said. Negotiations remain deadlocked. Talks snag on Iran's nuclear program, which the US insists must top the agenda. Iran's latest proposal, sent through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control in exchange for lifting the US maritime blockade, releasing frozen assets, and ending military actions. Reuters reported this week that Tehran is prolonging negotiations to weaken Trump ahead of the midterms rather than pursuing a deal. The economic leverage calculus may be shifting. The Wall Street Journal, citing ship tracker Kpler, reported oil flows through Hormuz are approaching prewar levels as the US military escorts tankers and shipping companies accept higher risk for bigger payoffs. Inside Iran, the human cost is acute. A Tehran doctor told DW the economic situation has become 'extremely bad,' with widespread poverty even among those with good incomes. Another Tehran resident captured the disconnect between geopolitical maneuvering and daily life: 'What do the nuclear sites have to do with us? They are inside mountains.'
