Cop31 Opens in Antalya With Familiar Ambitions and a Shrinking Window for Credibility

The UN climate summit convenes 100,000 delegates to talk about implementation, not new promises — but the multilateral machinery that bent the warming curve from 4°C toward 2.5°C is straining under geopolitical fracture.

Cop31 has opened in Antalya, Turkey, with approximately 100,000 delegates from nearly every country — the US under Trump being the conspicuous absence, the Taliban being the conspicuous presence. The UN has formally acknowledged that the 1.5°C warming limit agreed in Paris will be breached within years, with Earth accumulating heat at an accelerating rate. The question hanging over the Mediterranean coast is whether talking about implementing old promises counts as progress or merely buys time.

The diplomatic scaffolding has done real work. At one point, the planet faced a trajectory toward 4°C of warming this century; that figure now sits closer to 2.5°C, driven partly by Cop-forged commitments and partly by the explosive growth of clean energy. That's the difference between catastrophic and civilisation-threatening — a distinction worth preserving even when it feels inadequate. But the structural problems are calcifying. Wealthy nations continue to fall short on climate finance for vulnerable countries. Emissions cuts remain too slow. The phrase "fossil fuels" still functions as a diplomatic taboo, with oil- and gas-producing states wielding effective veto power over language that names the root cause. Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, opened proceedings by pointing to the global shock wave from fossil fuel cost chaos — hitting households and spreading inflation — as evidence of the urgency. The co-hosts — Turkey and Australia, an unusual pairing — are pushing for a concrete deliverable: an agreement to increase the share of electricity in total energy use. It's a winnable goal precisely because it sidesteps the combustion question. Chris Bowen, Australia's climate minister and head of negotiations, made an almost plaintive appeal for multilateralism to prove it still functions: "Friends, let's show the world that multilateralism works." The geopolitical context is brutal. War, inflation, and a fracturing international order have pushed climate down the priority stack in capitals worldwide. Cop was designed for a world where countries could negotiate as nominal equals toward shared goals. That world is being stress-tested by great-power competition, populist nationalism, and a US administration that has opted out entirely. What remains is the process itself — unwieldy, consensus-driven, incremental, and still the only global forum where 190+ countries sit in the same room on climate. The honest assessment: there will be no breakthrough on fossil fuel phase-out, no transformative finance deal, and no enforcement mechanism for existing pledges. But the road stays open. The show stays on. In an era of institutional collapse, the survival of the forum is itself a form of resilience — just not the kind that bends the emissions curve. Down to Earth, the Guardian's climate newsletter, will publish twice weekly from Antalya through the summit's duration.