Cop31 Enters Real Negotiations as Leaders Exit: Electrification Becomes the Central Bet

World leaders leave Antalya, clearing the stage for actual deal-making. The IEA declares an 'age of electricity' while China declines to host Cop33 and the UK suppresses its own climate security report.

Nearly all of the 90-plus world leaders who descended on Antalya have departed, some bound for Dublin's AI summit, leaving negotiators to produce a first draft cover decision — possibly as early as this weekend. The substantive agenda is now clear: wording on 1.5°C overshoot, fossil fuel transition language, and a proposed resolution to derive 35% of final energy worldwide from electricity by 2035. That target, if adopted, would be one of the most consequential decarbonisation commitments ever made at a Cop.

The International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol has framed the stakes in blunt terms: the world is now in the "age of electricity." His numbers are striking — 5,000 gigawatts of electricity generation capacity added in the last decade, with a conservative projection of 12,000 gigawatts in the next ten years, more than doubling the pace. Electric car sales outside China have risen 60% in the past nine months. Electricity currently meets about a quarter of global final energy needs, with three-quarters still supplied by fossil fuels for transport, heating, and industry. China's decision to rule out hosting Cop33 in 2028 removes what many experts considered the most symbolically powerful option. The world's largest emitter is in the midst of a genuine transformation — renewable capacity now exceeds coal, EV sales hit nearly two-thirds of the domestic market last month, and clean energy industries drove over 90% of investment growth last year. Former US Vice-President Al Gore called it "too bad." Former Secretary of State John Kerry said China is leaving the world behind in low-carbon technology. The hosting slot, which under UNFCCC rules belongs to an Asian country, now falls to contenders including Uzbekistan, Thailand, South Korea, and Indonesia, with no decision expected at this Cop. The UK's behaviour at the summit illustrates a persistent pattern of climate ambiguity. Andy Burnham addressed delegates pledging net zero by 2050 and announced the appointment of Madeleine Alessandri — former head of the Joint Intelligence Committee — as climate security adviser. Alessandri authored an explosive report finding that ecosystem collapse could trigger food shortages, mass migration, and nuclear conflict. The report was supposed to launch at last year's Cop, was suppressed by Starmer's government, leaked to the Guardian, and eventually released in redacted form. Ed Miliband has briefed foreign governments on its contents. The full report remains unpublished. The UK is simultaneously leveraging the report's credibility and refusing to let the public read it. Greenpeace deployed a 6-metre Trojan horse installation near the Antalya town hall, designed by Danish artist Thomas Dambo, with plastic rubbish spilling from its stomach and a sign reading "Stop Plastic. Big Oil's Trojan horse." The action targets petrochemicals — the fossil fuel industry's hedge against declining demand for combustion fuels. Plastic production compounds climate damage through hydrocarbon extraction (with methane leakage), energy-intensive manufacturing, and incineration of waste, which releases CO2 and lung-scarring chemicals. The structural picture emerging from Cop31 is one of genuine momentum on electrification colliding with institutional evasion. The IEA's numbers suggest the energy transition is no longer aspirational — it is happening at scale, driven by economics as much as policy. But the political architecture lags badly. China won't host. The UK won't publish. The US under Trump has vacated international climate cooperation entirely. The 35% electrification target for 2035 is the concrete test: if it passes, it becomes a binding coordination mechanism. If it fails, Cop31 joins the long list of summits where the physics moved faster than the politics. The next week of negotiations will determine whether the departure of leaders frees negotiators to cut real deals or simply removes the political cover needed to make hard commitments. The first draft text — expected over the weekend or Monday — will reveal whether the electrification target survives contact with fossil fuel state opposition, and whether the 1.5°C overshoot language acknowledges what the science already shows.