An upper-level low-pressure system moving out of Mexico, paired with surface low pressure along the Texas Gulf Coast, is delivering a prolonged wet-weather event across Central Texas through Monday. This is not a single-storm event — it's two rounds of rain with a brief evening lull between them, the kind of extended soaking that saturates soils and raises flood risk even at modest hourly rates. Sunday's rain chances run 70% to 90% across the region. Morning brings overcast skies, scattered showers, and embedded thunderstorms, with temperatures stuck in the upper 50s to near 60. The heaviest rainfall axis shifts south through the afternoon, but rain chances remain high until evening. Temperatures won't break the lower 60s all day. The second round moves in late Sunday evening and persists through Monday morning. National Weather Service meteorologists in the Austin–San Antonio office now expect this batch to stick around through Monday daytime, not clearing until Monday evening — a slower timeline than earlier models suggested. That extended duration is the key variable for flood risk. Rainfall totals of 0.75 to 2 inches are likely across Central Texas through early Tuesday. Isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible along the Rio Grande and across South Texas, where the Weather Prediction Center has issued a level 1 out of 4 excessive rainfall risk for Sunday into Monday. Urban areas along the I-35 corridor face localized flooding potential where storms repeatedly track over saturated ground. Tuesday brings a brief dry window before another atmospheric disturbance crosses Texas on Wednesday, bringing a slight rain chance on Veterans Day. Temperatures rebound into the 70s for the rest of the week with mornings in the 50s — a return to near-normal conditions after two days of gray, cool weather. The forecast leans heavily on the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model for hourly timing and the NWS global model ensembles for duration. The shift toward a slower clearing timeline is notable — when multiple model runs converge on a wetter solution, the signal tends to verify. Residents in flood-prone areas along I-35, especially those with already-saturated soils from prior rainfall, should monitor NWS alerts through Monday evening.
