Donald Trump's approval rating has cratered to 32% in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll — the lowest of his career — driven by collapsing support among independents and Latino voters who helped deliver his 2024 victory. The timing is brutal: midterm elections that will determine congressional control are one month away. The Latino numbers are particularly stark. An NBC News/Telemundo poll shows 59% of Hispanic Americans now prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, double the share from two years ago. Just 24% approve of Trump's performance. This represents a near-total reversal of the gains Trump made with Latino voters in 2024, erasing what Republicans had treated as a durable realignment. The drivers are policy-heavy, not vibes. Americans are souring on the economy, the war with Iran, and other issues they attribute directly to the administration. These are not abstract disapproval signals — they are pocketbook and security concerns that historically translate into midterm punishment for the president's party. Republican candidates are already adapting by distancing themselves from Trump on immigration, a remarkable reversal given how central border enforcement was to the 2024 campaign. That some Republicans in conservative states are breaking from the president signals internal polling that mirrors or exceeds the public numbers. Trump dismissed the data before boarding a flight to Nebraska. "I'm doing great," he told reporters, before blaming CNN and the media. He has spent recent days barnstorming for Republican candidates, but the question is whether presidential campaign appearances help or hurt candidates trying to localize their races. The structural problem for Republicans is that midterm elections are referendums on the incumbent president. A 32% approval floor, if it holds or drops further, puts even traditionally safe seats into play. The gap between Trump's dismissive posture and the panic visible in candidate behavior tells you which number the party's strategists believe. Whether this is a floor or a waystation depends on what happens with Iran and the economy over the next four weeks. But the Latino defection is the slow-moving earthquake: a constituency Republicans spent years courting has reverted in under two years, suggesting the 2024 gains were transactional, not ideological.
