The Messina Group polled 11,461 people between 12-24 September and found that 49% of voters now support the UK rejoining the EU, with only 28.5% against. The research tested seven different relationship options; rejoining was the most popular, followed by the current government strategy of cutting trade barriers within the existing framework (48.2% support). Moving further from the EU was backed by just 27.9%, with 41.2% opposed. On the raw question of whether Brexit was right, 52.4% said it was wrong, 29.7% said right, and 17.9% didn't know. The political fuel in these numbers is the vote-share modelling. TMG found that offering closer EU ties could boost Labour's vote by 4.3 to 7.4 percentage points depending on the option. The biggest uplift — 7.4 points — came from promising a fresh referendum with the PM campaigning to re-enter. But the source of those gains matters enormously: most of the additional votes would come from the Greens and Liberal Democrats, not from swing voters in Leave-voting constituencies. This is a consolidation play on the centre-left, not a persuasion play across the Brexit divide. Andy Burnham used his first Labour conference speech as leader to announce a review of options for Britain's EU relationship, subsequently adding that full rejoining should be on the table. The move was bold in context — two-thirds of cabinet ministers, including Burnham himself, Louise Haigh, John Healey, and Ed Miliband, represent seats that backed Brexit in 2016. Downing Street's messaging strategy is to attack those who promised Brexit benefits and failed to deliver, rather than telling Leave voters they were wrong. The cabinet is visibly split. Lucy Powell, Labour's deputy leader, said going beyond the inherited Starmer-era reset plans was "not possible nor desirable." Jonathan Reynolds warned that constitutional questions were causing business uncertainty. Shabana Mahmood called rejoining "not a simple, straightforward thing" and flagged unacceptable costs. Against this, multiple unnamed cabinet ministers acknowledged to the Guardian that Brexit "clearly hasn't worked" while urging caution about restoking division. The structural risk is straightforward. Nigel Farage claimed Burnham had given him "the biggest boost in my career" by reviving the debate. Some inside No 10 fear that promising renegotiation could revive Reform UK's flagging fortunes — converting a question about trade barriers and defence cooperation into a culture-war mobilisation tool. The poll itself found that Brexit arguments over immigration control and sovereignty still resonate, even as the economic verdict has turned decisively negative. Four in five voters want to keep the pound, and a majority — 53.4% versus 24.2% — want to stay in the ECHR. On timing, 25.9% want to rejoin immediately, 22.9% within three years, and 8.4% over the next decade. Almost a third said a referendum would be needed, while one in six thought a general election mandate sufficient. These numbers suggest broad directional support for closer ties, but no consensus on mechanism or pace. Ben Judah, a Chatham House fellow and former adviser to David Lammy, described the findings as "a massive validation of Andy Burnham's boldness," arguing that Europe has "a unique ability to unite the left and grow the Labour vote share among swing voters." The TMG research is expected to be shared with the current Downing Street operation. The question now is whether Labour treats this as a mandate to move or as a warning that the electoral geometry — Leave seats held by Labour MPs — doesn't align neatly with national polling aggregates.
