NATO issued its sharpest rebuke of Russian nuclear rhetoric on Tuesday after Moscow warned it would "deploy its entire arsenal" if the alliance threatened Kaliningrad. NATO spokesperson Allison Hart confirmed Russia had sent a non-paper to the alliance and that NATO had responded, noting it is a defensive alliance whose exercises pose no risk to Russian territory. The exchange marks another cycle of nuclear brinkmanship where Moscow leverages existential threats to constrain Western decision-making. The air war over Kyiv is entering a dangerous new phase. Russia fired ballistic missiles and dozens of jet-powered drones at the capital on Tuesday, part of a sustained day-and-night bombardment campaign. These new jet-powered drones fly too fast and too high for Ukrainian ground-based air defences to intercept — a capability gap that is forcing fundamental changes to civilian life. Kyiv's Taras Shevchenko National University ordered students home, switching to remote classes until at least 16 October. The university's main campus sits close to the National Academy of Sciences, where a drone strike killed one person Monday. Russia's target selection on Tuesday was deliberately infrastructural. Moscow struck two datacentres in Kyiv overnight, a military-linked cargo vessel in the Black Sea, and another vessel carrying military cargo in the Ukrainian port of Odesa. The datacentre strikes signal an intent to degrade Ukraine's digital backbone, while the maritime attacks target the logistics pipeline sustaining Ukraine's military. In Sumy, Russian glide bombs hit a school, killing two and injuring six, including three children. Governor Oleh Hryhorov said staff had managed to evacuate 100 people before the worst of the strike. The domestic cost of Russia's war machine is now visible in fiscal documents. Reuters obtained budget plans showing Russia intends to spend 17.1 trillion roubles ($202.58 billion) on defence in 2027 — roughly 27% more than the 13.5 trillion originally budgeted and the highest figure since the war began in 2022. The bill comes directly from Russian citizens: social policy funding (pensions, veteran payments, maternity benefits) will shrink by 7%, education by 6%, and healthcare by 6.8%. This is a classic wartime extraction pattern — the state cannibalises its own population's future to sustain the present fight. Diplomatic channels remain active but opaque. Russia's foreign investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev met US officials in Washington for talks about future US-Russia energy projects planned for after the war. The visit follows Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's meeting with Putin in Moscow and subsequent discussions with Ukrainian officials in New York. Separately, the Atlantic reported that Trump favours a proposal under which the US would lift some sanctions in exchange for Russia releasing political prisoners — a framing that decouples sanctions relief from the war's territorial outcome. On the military aid front, Belgium committed to transferring three F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by year's end, with Zelenskyy confirming Ukraine had already received urgent F-16 ammunition deliveries from Belgium and Spain. Ukraine also received a NASAMS air defence system, developed jointly by the US and Norway — a direct response to the drone gap. Meanwhile, a Russian Tu-95 nuclear-capable strategic bomber crashed during a training mission in the Amur region, killing six of seven crew members. The loss of a strategic asset during routine operations underscores the strain on Russia's aging military hardware. The picture that emerges is one of mutual exhaustion channelled through different mechanisms. Russia extracts from its own welfare state to fund escalation. Ukraine absorbs physical destruction of its cities, universities, and infrastructure. The US negotiates energy deals and prisoner swaps as parallel tracks to a peace that remains undefined. NATO issues statements. Belgium sends three jets. The asymmetry between the scale of destruction and the scale of response defines this phase of the war.
